Archive for November, 2006

On the road in Australia

I’m currently on holidays in Australia, and have been for the past two weeks.  I have enjoyed my time here quite a bit, the problem is that I have been sick the entire time other than the first two days.
On day 3, I caught some allergy problems that came and went, and immediately after that I caught a cold (I know the difference because the symptoms are different).  That part hasn’t been nearly as fun.  Still, Australia is a great place to visit.  I leave in a couple of days for Fiji for five days, and I am looking forward to that as well.

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The one thing about blogs that kind of annoys me is the number of blogs floating about out there that people start and then forget about six weeks after they start it.  Seriously, people, if you’re going to start a blog, update it continously.

This blog is my second blog, the other one is here.  That one I have mainted for nearly six months, and I am quite proud that it is not a blog that has gone dead.  I also plan to keep this one going for a long time, it’s already coming up on two months.

I don’t post here as often but I will try to update it at least twice a week.  It’s a lot easier now that I have Live Writer.

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On Sept 15, 2006, I bought Garmin at 43.50 per share.  I bought 50 shares.  I used some technical analysis which showed that the correction was ending.  My analysis proved to be correct because a few days later the stock broke out of a double-bottom base.  It then raced up and started to break out to a new 52-week high before pulling back slightly.  At its peak, I had a 26% gain in GRMN in about 6 weeks.

However, today, November 1, GRMN gapped down on a bad earnings report.  I gapped down huge.  The move was so bad that my 26% gain was whittled down to a 3.5% gain in one day.  I have never had a position go against me that quickly that badly.

So, in response, I did the only thing I could do — I closed position.  I thought about holding on because a move that swift (16%) is usually due for a countermove in the opposite direction, but my rules said to get out on a big volatility move against you (plus it hit my profit retracement).  Earnings can do that to you, they can wipe you out quickly.

I did know that GRMN was getting slightly extended above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  I have learned that stocks that are so badly extended are usually dangerous to buy.  Buying stocks at new 52-week highs have been dangerous in 2006.  Good thing I still made a small profit.  I feel sorry for the suckers who bought in the last three days.

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